Way-too-early thoughts on the 2024 election

Where can you do the most good for the cause?

Now that the 2023 election season is pretty much in the rearview mirror, it’s time to start thinking about the next one. And it really is time to get started if you are running anything other than a local campaign; in fact, in some instances you’re already off to a late start.

But let’s say you’re just an activist who doesn’t have the stomach (or time) to run for elective office. What’s the best strategy for you? I have my pair of ideas to throw in the hopper.

(First of all, since I’ve decided not to put this behind my paywall I’m going to do three things:

One, remind you to share:

Second, my subscription prompt:

And lastly, remind you that you can also Buy Me a Coffee, since I have a page there now.

That gets my appeals out of the way.)

Now, about those ideas. They have to do with assessing your situation, both personally and politically.

First of all, look at your personal situation. Unfortunately, most people don’t have either the time or money to get involved, but I think that those who the Lord leads in that direction will find they have at least one of these items, if not both.

For example, you might find that money’s a bit tight, but you have a little spare time to help the candidate or cause you believe in. That was me early in my adult life: the guy who would volunteer to do lit drops on a weekend, ride in a parade and toss out candy, or work a poll for my candidates. Others were more comfortable with making phone calls, canvassing a neighborhood, or even being more directly involved, such as being a campaign treasurer.

On the other hand, maybe you’re more like me now, with my regular job and various side hustles (like writing a Substack.) But I’ve reached a station in life where I’ve been known to help out a little bit financially, and that’s valuable, too, particularly in local races. Even a couple hundred dollars can go a long way in a winnable local election.

Next, look at your political situation. I’ll use mine as an example, in part because Delaware gives me this handy-dandy chart. (A state or county Board of Elections in your jurisdiction should have something similar.) In 2024, I will have the following elections to deal with (assuming they’re contested):

• Laurel school board (one seat out of five, May election.) The incumbent last faced election in 2014 because he drew no opposition in 2019 - however, that was the last time a school board member was unopposed so there very well could be a race this year. It will likely begin to play out after the first of the year for a May election. In a related issue, I’m not aware of any school tax levies on the ballot.

• Sussex County Council District 1. This incumbent - who, as I’ve described previously, wasn’t my incumbent the last time this area voted prior to redistricting - is a Republican who would be seeking a fifth term. He had a Democrat run against him in a differently-configured district and won by 30 points in 2020, which, interestingly enough, was the first time he had been opposed for office. Now I would say his district is even more Republican.

• Sussex County Clerk of the Peace. He’s basically the guy who gives out marriage licenses. This Republican incumbent was unopposed in 2020 and won election in 2016 by 18 points over a Democrat. Seems like a patronage job if anything.

• Delaware House District 40. My Republican representative hasn’t had a contested election since 2012, which is when he assumed office by beating a Democrat aspirant by 25 points. If anything, I’m sure the Democrats who redistricted the area made it even more solidly red, ceding the territory to the GOP.

• Delaware Senate District 21. My Republican Senator last won in 2022, but thanks to the vagaries of redistricting and staggered terms, comes right back to face the voters again in 2024 for a full four-year term. He won 87% of the vote against two minor-party candidates last year, beat a Democrat opponent by 30 points in 2018, and upset a longtime (26 year) Blue Dog Democrat in 2014 after losing to him in 2012. One concern is his age, as he’s in his later 70s now - this could be a case where my House representatative may decide to move up if the Senator retires.

• Insurance Commissioner (state): The only one of the four “down-ticket” statewide positions up this time, this incumbent has won twice (2016, 2020), knocking off a former two-term Democrat incumbent in 2016. He’s won both his general elections by twenty-ish point margins, which has become typical in a statewide race. The GOP hasn’t won an Insurance Commissioner election since 2000.

• Lieutenant Governor: The current second banana is running for governor because both the current governor and she are term-limited. But she’s in a contested Democrat primary that won’t be decided until September. On the other hand, the Republicans haven’t had an LG primary in recent years, nor has there been a LG elected from the GOP since 1988. It’s another of those twenty-point margin type positions.

• Governor: Basically the same as LG, with the same history and contested Democrat primary in years the governor is term-limited, like this one. The last Republican LG was also the last Republican governor, for a few days in 1993. In contrast to LG, though, the position generally draws a contested Republican primary field - last time it was six, including the aforementioned State Senator who finished third. In 2016 and 2008 there were two vying for the position.

• United States Senator: Since the incumbent is retiring after way too long, the Democrats have tried to broom the field to give Delaware its first black woman Senator (the same person who was its first black woman Congress-critter, which is her job - and sole qualification for it - now.) The Republicans have generally managed to have contested primaries, with the winner fading back to obscurity for the most part after losing the general by double-digits. The last Republican to win a seat in the Senate from Delaware won that election in the “Contract with America” balloting of 1994 - the seat the incumbent wrested away in 2000.

• United States Congress: As noted above, the incumbent is running for Senate so a whole menagerie of folks are running as Democrats, but none so far as Republicans. The gentleman who lost in 2018 (primary), 2020, and 2022 seems to have picked up the hint but at the moment I’m not aware of a successor - meaning they will likely have a steep learning curve in a statewide race, as usual. Usually there are a couple of characters who decide they can run this most uphill of battles, as Delaware hasn’t elected a Republican to Congress since 2008.

• President: The less said about this, the better. Delaware’s meager three electoral votes have gone to the Democrat every time since 1992, and if Joe Biden runs again those folks up north will be stupid enough to vote for him again because “orange man bad.”

I have a somewhat unique situation in that the races I can have the most impact on are already pretty much set the way I want them (enough so to not warrant me changing my voter registration to the GOP.) I’ve not been passionate enough about my school board races to do anything but vote in them, and my representatives don’t need my money or time because the district is so heavily GOP - I felt safe voting for the Libertarian running for State Senate last time because I knew my Senator would win anyway.

On the other hand, the national race is way beyond my control and I have no idea who will run statewide yet so I couldn’t help them out anyway.

But what this area should try to be is the bench for young and conservative statewide candidates. We get our share of conservative candidates, but they seem to be of a kind that believes their first race should be statewide. On the other side, they learn to pay their dues in some way and oftentimes their primaries for open seats are crowded as the process naturally culls their field and creates a deep bench. Conservatives don’t have that, although some of that is because their goal isn’t generally a career in government - just as often, they stay in office only a few terms because they go by the Founders’ belief that politics wasn’t a career destination.

I made this a long post, so here’s my advice: know your local races and maximize your impact there. For the most part, a good local government can resist what comes from Washington, D.C. so that should be the focus of your efforts.