It blew up last Friday afternoon, meaning staffers got a pretty good lunch out of the deal. A meeting between President Trump, Vice President Vance, and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy unraveled into the latter’s ejection from the White House.
The purpose of the gathering was to sign a pact allowing for the United States to mine Ukrainian rare earth minerals as a partial payback for our support of Ukraine in defending itself against the “minor incursion” Russia commenced three years ago. This was considered a win by the Trump administration as it would open up an avenue for securing certain rare earth elements mainly controlled by China and also allow U.S. personnel, who would be leading the mining, to serve as a buffer of sorts against further Russian aggression.
You might recall that one of the things Donald Trump promised on the campaign trail was peace between Ukraine and Russia. Obviously it’s taken more than the “24 hours” he said it would, but he’s done more in a month-plus than Joe Biden did in nearly three years of struggle, perhaps pulling us from the brink of a wider war involving American forces losing their lives half a world away for the third time this century.
Regardless, whether Zelenskyy did this on his own or took bad advice, the deal is off - for now. (As of last night, though, reports are that we’re back in business. But still…)
I didn’t want to put out a take of my own until some time had passed, and as I sit here writing this there’s been a lot of discussion. Obviously those on the Left who have once again plastered the blue and yellow of Ukraine’s flag on their social media profiles are blaming Trump, but that’s what they always do. And I don’t see them abandoning their families and shuffling off to fight the Russkis on the front lines, instead simply virtue signaling that they’re willing to expend someone else’s blood (but our treasure and weaponry that we have in short supply) to expel Russia from Ukrainian territory.
At this point, Russia is holding that which has more or less wanted to be part of their motherland anyway - oblasts in eastern Ukraine have the largest proportion of ethnic Russians. And prior to the invasion, Russia annexed the Crimean territory once belonging to Ukraine in 2014, as it was the one warm-water port the former USSR had. One would think there has to be a point where the two sides get tired of losing a generation of young men in extended trench warfare.
On the other side, there are Americans who have seen billions of dollars of aid and military equipment disappear into a Ukrainian black hole, never to be seen again. (Well, unless the rumor that Ukraine has been selling these weapons right back to the Mexican cartels for hard cash is true.) Because Ukraine is not a member of NATO - although they would like to be - we don’t have to be doing this, but traditionally we have taken the side of the underdog in these types of fights, with mixed results.
Yet many commentators have reminded me of recent Ukrainian history, particularly the promise made at the breakup of the old Soviet Union that NATO would not move one inch eastward. Instead, NATO has absorbed many of the old Warsaw Pact nations, eliminating what used to be a barrier between the traditional American allies of Western Europe and the USSR formed by the countries annexed by the Communists in the days of the Iron Curtain. Obviously, as a member of NATO, we played right along, and one giant sticking point in this conflict is Zelenskyy’s desire for Ukraine to become part of NATO.
Since its creation in 1991 with the breakup of the old Soviet Union, Ukraine has ping-ponged back and forth between governments that favored more Western ties and those who favored better relations with mother Russia - which, remember, was their controller within the lifetime of people like Zelenskyy, who grew up while Ukraine was just another SSR in the USSR. (If you recall the Soviet Union’s Chernobyl disaster from the mid-80s, that was in what is considered Ukraine now.) Certainly, they’ve had a push from the left (geographically, us) and a push from the right (Russia) over the last three-plus decades as both sides have fought to install a government which favored them - and kept the corruption going. (Does the name Burisma ring a bell?)
I think the way Donald Trump and his administration see it, this internecine squabble between two nations isn’t our game to play when we have bigger fish to fry, like China. If Europe wants to keep arming the Ukrainians and spending their money, well, have at it, but count us out. However, they can’t do a whole lot to help Ukraine when their military presence is but a shadow of their former prowess. Apparently they had to come back to the table.
The thing about having a lame-duck president is that he’s only into legacy-building now, and worrying about a territorial pissing is less important than making his nation great again. The Left will find some other thing to blame Trump for sooner or later, but most Americans have had enough of the Ukrainian black hole, symbolized by a leader who couldn’t even be bothered to wear a suit to the White House.
Russia outfought the Ukrainians in this one, but the Ukrainians still have a slightly smaller country to call home. So just call it a day and let’s go on with life.
In the meantime, though, you can Buy Me a Coffee, since I have a page there now.
Great summation! Michael Knowles said Zelenskyy doesn't want peace, he wants victory. And he'll take advantage of everyone even if it causes WWIII. I agree.
Well written Michael!