Taking the advice

A quick update on my note from yesterday.

Win or lose, I can say two things about this sign: one is that Eric Hansen’s campaign was really responsive with getting me this sign, and secondly it reminds me I need to sweep off my front porch more often.

Whether Eric Hansen wins his race for Senate or not (sadly, LBR is the prohibitive favorite), he scores well in Good Sign/Bad Sign (hat tip to my old friend Don Murphy): Good coloration, reasonably clear lettering (although the Delaware shape in the H is a bit cringy, in this state he is far from the only one who uses it), and a good subheading directing viewers to a clear winning issue. (By the way, the sign is now in my yard, right on my corner.)

But that’s not really the issue at stake here; frankly, I’m about out of relevant election photos. I just wanted to revise and extend my note from yesterday and add information from the other side of the border (Maryland, who reports their early voting totals by county AND by party. Always a good job.)

This is what I wrote last night as a note, so as not to stomp on TER:

This sort of goes with something I posted earlier, as an update.

Here in Delaware, I think this is the second election we’ve had early voting and IIRC the first presidential/gubernatorial. (Both are up this year in the First State.)

We only have three counties, and politically they are red (Sussex), purple (Kent), and blue (New Castle.) Through four days of early voting (Friday-Monday) we already have good turnout:

Sussex: 206,685 RV - turnout (early + absentees) 53,775 (26%)

Kent: 143,206 RV - turnout 18,647 (13%)

New Castle: 436,686 RV - turnout 39,784 (9.1%)

Think the Trump voters are taking “bank your vote” to heart?

Straight up, Democrats have a 150,000 vote advantage over Republicans in Delaware, but they have to be worried about GOP turnout.

With another day of voting in, Sussex is up to 65,898, or 31.9%, while Kent has moved up to 23,305 (16.3%). New Castle still lags in last with 48,757, or just 11.2% of its voters. They have about half the absentees in so far, which is pretty much proportional to their overall total in the state, but Sussex seems to be outperforming there thanks to its older population.

While the Republicans have, as always, an uphill battle statewide, there are a few key races in Sussex this turnout could be affecting. In 2022 the Republicans lost both a House and Senate seat in the county as a popular longtime incumbent retired and the House member who tried to earn a promotion to the Senate by taking his spot lost as well, with his House seat flipping, too. Meanwhile, while House District 14 has been Democrat since redistricting moved it down here two decades ago, it would be nice to steal another seat. The House District 41 race is also important as it involves my three-time defending Legislator of the Year, Rich Collins, trying to keep his seat.

As for Maryland, there are only two jurisdictions where Democrats have a higher percentage of their voters participating in early voting than Republicans: Baltimore City and Prince George’s County. (These happen to be the most heavily Democrat and minority areas in the state.) Everywhere else, the percentage of Republicans that have done early voting runs 3-10% ahead of the Democrats.

While Maryland isn’t doing many local elections this cycle, the important races are the open Senate seat that features former governor and nominal #NeverTrump Republican Larry Hogan against Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks. (If I were still in Maryland I’d likely vote for Libertarian Mike Scott, since Hogan sold his state and party out long ago.) The other key race is another open seat where April McClain Delaney, wife of former Congressman John Delaney, is taking on Republican Neil Parrott in the 6th Congressional District. That seat opened up when David Trone lost his bid to move up to the U. S. Senate to Alsobrooks. When I did my monoblogue Accountability Project grading Maryland legislators, Parrott won my Legislator of the Year award the final two years I did it, 2017 and 2018. So you know what my rooting interest is there; Andy Harris needs some help from Maryland and I’d love to see the blatant gerrymandering Maryland Democrats have done with that district backfire. (Since redistricting, Delaney doesn’t even live in the district.)

So that’s the scoop. I have a post tentatively lined up for Friday, a message for Democrats on Saturday, and a Monday memory. Most likely I will do a quick wrapup next Wednesday (I may push it to Thursday depending on how votes come in) then I’m taking a week or so away. I may work on my pages I’ve been planning for The Knothole in that time period.

I also owe you the 2023-24 Delaware Accountability Project, which is compiled but not yet written. Figured you may need it before January because, sadly, despite presumably good GOP turnout I think most of the Democrats will be back.

Until next time, remember you can Buy Me a Coffee since I have a page there.