Special election 2023: a deeper dive
While the incumbent seldom had a problem with re-election, the data suggests turnout is a key.
There’s election intrigue at what’s usually a dead spot on the voting calendar.
I thought it was worth looking into the prospect of the Democrats swiping another seat in the Delaware General Assembly, so I’m checking a couple key factors in this House District 37 special election race.
First of all, we have voter registration and election results. It was rather amazing that the Democrat-controlled redistricting process - which took out a chunk of the previous House District 37 to create a new House District 4, relocated from New Castle County thanks to population shifts - kept the district with pretty much the same voter composition.
In December 2019, prior to redistricting and a 2020 election where erstwhile Rep. Ruth Briggs King ran unopposed, the district has this composition:
Republican 7,302 (39.0%), Democrat 6,836 (36.5%), others 4,598 (24.5%)
If there was ever a swing district in the state in terms of voter registration, this was it.
In statewide elections, here is how the district fared in the 2018 election:
Auditor: Spadola (R) 5,252 (55.2%), McGuinness (D) 4.264 (44.8%)
Treasurer: Simpler (R) 5,860 (61.1%), Davis (D) 3,623 (37.8%), Chandler (Green) 111 (1.2%)
AG: Pepukayi (R) 5,055 (53.1%), Jennings (D) 4,472 (46.9%)
Congress: Walker (R) 4,842 (51.7%), LBR (D) 4,528 (48.3%)
U.S. Senate: Arlett (R) 5,450 (55.9%), Carper (D) 4,166 (42.7%), Frost (L) 71 (0.7%), Theodoropoulos (Green) 59 (0.6%)
But let’s fast forward to the present, and 2022 election results for the newly-configured district. (Note that there are only four because there was no Delaware Senate race in 2022.)
The most recent voter registration had the parties set this way in District 37:
Republican 6,189 (39.0%), Democrat 5.565 (35.1%), others 4,119 (25.9%)
It’s amazing that the GOP held serve in this district considering their rolls have been declining overall, so as a whole I would have to say this district has become a more reddish shade of purple because it borrowed from the outskirts of the heavily GOP Districts 39 and 40 in western Sussex. But let’s see if that bore out in election results last year.
Auditor: Lorrah (R) 4,729 (61.5%), York (D) 2,958 (38.5%)
Treasurer: Coverdale (R) 4,713 (61.3%), Davis (D) 2,974 (38.7%)
AG: Murray (R) 4,799 (61.9%), Jennings (D) 2,953 (38.1%)
Congress: Murphy (R) 4,497 (57.9%), LBR (D) 3,160 (41.7%), McNutt (L) 59 (0.8%), Rogers (NPD) 49 (0.6%)
This would tend to reflect the theory that the 37th District somehow became more Republican, as the four Republican challengers (who were all different than the 2018 crop) pulled more of the vote, often by several percentage points. (Granted, a couple were more familiar as local natives.)
At this time I am only aware of a Republican and Democrat running for this race. There’s probably not time for a third-party person to jump in, although the lack of a primary meant the voters are getting a pig in a poke for the GOP and a failed State Senate candidate from 2012 as the Democrat.
I’ll go with the older candidate first. Jane Hovington, who was described in a 2017 “Saltwater Portrait” as “not afraid to be heard,” was selected by the Democrats to be their candidate. That’s somewhat natural, as she runs a non-profit organization, is the current chair of the Sussex County Democrat Party and was a former head of the county NAACP. Citing her three keywords as “passion, experience, leadership” she vows on her website to build a better Delaware for a better tomorrow, but really doesn’t get into how she would accomplish that. She just claims that, “Throughout my career, I've fought to strengthen our public education system and ensure services and support reach the most vulnerable members of our community. I plan to continue that fight in Dover.” Since it’s noted that Hovington was 66 at the time of the Cape Gazette article, she’s now a spry 72-year-old, if age makes a difference in this race as it seems to in the presidential.
On the other hand, retired critical care nurse and healthcare consultant Valerie Jones Giltner, who is 56 years old, is the Republican seeking the seat. While this is her first political run, Giltner has an agenda she’d like to carry out:
Strengthening working families
Protecting citizens’ freedoms while limiting burdensome government regulations
Maintaining safe and secure classrooms
Improving healthcare for our communities
Ensuring government accountability and efficiency
It’s a fairly traditional Republican agenda, which seems to me perhaps more focused on making government more efficient than reducing its size and scope. However, it’s open-ended enough to make me think VJG can make a real difference, especially when she sees how things are run up there. Nurses generally don’t take much crap, and I should know.
On the other hand, perhaps hers is a realistic approach to our current situation. But it’s worth noting that the winner replaces an incumbent who was ranked 9th out of 21 DGA Republicans in lifetime score for the Delaware Accountability Project, so I’m hoping she’s a more reliable conservative vote.
Another aspect that’s different is the aspect of early voting, which is fairly new to Delaware. While the election is set for December 21, early voting begins on December 8 - barely a week away.
Until next time, remember you can Buy Me a Coffee since I have a page there.