Red wave went south
The Delmarva got splashed here and there but Florida was surfing on it.
I figured I may as well get this out of the way, being a political pundit of some minor repute. I’m going to do the local states then national trends.
Delaware
I’m first looking at the three “off-year” statewide races, which hearken back to our last “normal” election in 2018. That was the year we were supposed to have the blue tide, and it indeed dislodged the Republican state treasurer and auditor - although he was retiring, the seat did not stay in GOP hands.
But in 2018 there was something of a spread, as those three statewide races were decided by 6, 16, and 23 points. Over the last two elections it seems like there is little if any ticket splitting: the three races in 2020 (governor, LG, and insurance commissioner) were all decided by about 20 points and this time the statewide races all came in within a narrow range of 7 to 9 points.
Sadly, the other big difference in the “offyear” election came down to turnout, as the state plummeted from 52% turnout in 2018 to just 42% this year. Certainly it’s discouraging for Republicans to already be 20 points behind based on simple voter registration numbers (Democrats are 47% of the electorate while the GOP is 27%) but the races were winnable this time: Kathy Jennings trailed her 2018 total by about 35,000 and Colleen Davis was 17,000 or so behind her pace of four years ago. Lydia York came up about 33,000 short of her predecessor Kathleen McGuiness. Had Republicans filled in that 10% turnout gap this time, there’s not a statewide race they wouldn’t have won, Lee Murphy included. (Had Lee simply matched his 2020 vote total, which would have needed less than 10% extra turnout, he’s a winner.)
A few more Republican voters may have saved the GOP seat in Senate District 6, which used to be held by retiring Sen. Ernie Lopez. Democrat Russ Huxtable snagged the spot over former Rep. Steve Smyk, who was unsuccessful in his bid to move up. (His old seat also fell into Democrat hands, as Stell Parker Selby upended Dallas Wingate.) Those two districts overlap in an area between old town Lewes and Milton - there is a slight Democrat advantage in registration in both the House and Senate district, but only a plurality in each. Senate District 6, however, is the only one of the five Senate districts in Sussex where the GOP is not the plurality.
The House only stayed even because population shifts and redistricting moved a New Castle County Democrat seat to Republican Sussex County. For the next term, the Senate now goes to 15-6 Democrat while the House stays 25-16 Democrat.
I wish I had turned my radio on earlier yesterday morning because I only caught the tail end of Patrick Murray’s (Mr. Julianne Murray) and host Jake Smith’s rant against the state Republican party and its lack of financial support. Unfortunately, the reality of being a Republican in a state like Delaware is that you’re on your own - something I have learned from my experience in Maryland. (This is why, with the exception of Lee Murphy, you seldom see statewide candidates run more than once in Delaware.) After all, what does the Delaware GOP have to offer to potential big-money contributors? A handful of local offices in Sussex and Kent counties and about 1/3 of the legislature? That’s slim pickins, and few candidates are willing (or able) to lend themselves the money to make what amounts to a vanity run.
I’m not saying new DEGOP leadership isn’t necessary - particularly in a cycle when the electoral wind was about as fresh at its back as you can get as a conservative - but I’m not sure what we as conservatives can expect for a little while. No one can seem to solve the 800-pound gorilla of New Castle County without being Ronald Reagan - even to somehow get to 40% of the vote there (and no Republican came closer to that than Greg Coverdale’s 37% in 2022) still means they have to win the rest of the state by a little over 60-40 to make it. But while it’s tempting to write NCC off, there’s no path to victory without it. The road to 2024 begins now, since we will have a term-limited governor, a House member still riding the coattails of her gender and race, and a 77-year-old Senator badly in need of retirement.
Maryland
What can you say about my former home state? They were out-and-out slaughtered in the statewide offices, with Comptroller candidate Barry Glassman - who, in a normal year, would probably be much more competitive - being the closest loser, by 17 points. All three other statewide Republicans lost by over 20 points, and that’s really sad.
Naturally, the “party over everything” crowd is blaming the rank-and-file GOP voters for picking bad candidates, but let me say one thing.
Back in 2010 and 2014, we in the TEA Party suppported candidates who either challenged the state party’s annointed candidate (Brian Murphy in 2010) or took their cues from the populist wing of the TEA Party (Charles Lollar in 2014.) This occurred in some contested local races as well. But when our hopefuls lost, we were told to suck it up and work for the party’s pick, and either we did it or at least we refrained from badmouthing the nominee. In the latter case, Larry Hogan talked a good enough game to succeed in being elected, which took 2018 off the table. (He was a crushing disappointment in many respects while in office, but that’s a post for another day.)
So where did the “party over everything” crowd disappear to in 2022 when the shoe was on the other foot? All you did was further divide the Maryland Republican Party, like they needed more of a handicap.
Your nominee was endorsed by Donald Trump, and that’s a problem? Maybe it is, but I’ve got news for you: tying the Republican nominee to Donald Trump was always going to be in the Democrat playbook regardless of who won. Same is going to be true in 2024 whether Trump is the nominee or not. It’s baked in the cake, so deal with it and remind people how good it was back then and what you can do to address the big issues: crime and the economy.
I will grant the Cox/Schifanelli ticket was not ready for prime time, but some of that came from a reliance on volunteers who had to learn on the fly how to run a statewide campaign because some of the best help belonged in that phantom “party over everything” crowd. No one gave the campaign money, and when you’re up against a candidate who’s going to be paying all those special interests back because they larded up his effort, that disparity shows. Same goes for Michael Peroutka, who would have been ten times the AG that hack Anthony Brown will be. It’s a sad sign that the formerly free state of Maryland voted against a candidate whose tagline was “liberty forever, mandates never.”
But when you come down to a local level, the news is hopefully better. Barring adverse results from remaining mail-in ballots - always a concern because they now know just what margins have to be made up - it appears the GOP flipped county executive seats in both Anne Arundel and Frederick counties, and came thisclose to flipping a Congressional seat.
(This is why states need to adopt the Delaware Way: all ballots have to be in hand by close of Election Day - none of this “postmarked by” crap. Neil Parrott was leading until the mail-in votes were counted, days after the election. Our counting was pretty much done by midnight Election Night.)
In Wicomico County, which had the highest-profile local races, the GOP maintained the County Executive seat, which will now go to Julie Giordano, and expanded their County Council majority to 5-2 by picking up an at-large seat from the Democrats. Unfortunately, they weren’t able to do much with the school board, which gained a pretty good candidate at-large but also picks up another radical leftist from a Council district. All of the local Delegates and Senators who survived their primary won another term, normally by a healthy margin. The only changes to the status quo: Republican Johnny Mautz of Talbot County easily advanced to the Senate from District 37, with fellow GOPer Tom Hutchinson of Dorchester County taking his place as Delegate from District 37B.
If the mail-in ballots don’t steal seats from two would-be Senate Republicans, they will maintain their 32-15 Maryland Senate minority, while the House of Delegates will likely have 100 Democrats to 41 Republicans, a loss of one seat for the GOP. (There’s one seat which may shift to the GOP with mail-ins, but that’s doubtful.) A sad state of affairs.
National
Let’s talk about this mail-in ballot thing. In my lifetime we’ve gone from things pretty much being decided on Election Night (“Dewey over Truman” and hanging chads notwithstanding) to having election months. Maybe it wouldn’t have made a difference, but how many people regretted their early mail-in vote for John Fetterman after they saw how he did on the debate? Things happen in the days before the ballots are cast that can affect races, and even though I generally know who I’m going to vote for once the primary’s over, sometimes there’s a factor that tips my scale somewhere else. (I didn’t vote straight ticket this year, as usual.)
So they are still counting in several states, which will have a direct effect on the control of Congress. (See Neil Parrott above.) This is a problem, particularly when other states had their votes all counted on Election Night. (Hello, Florida.) I understand that we have federalism and states are free to run elections as they wish, but doncha think that maybe if you want the voters to have confidence in the results that you would rein in this months-long process? There are people who won’t vote no matter how long you hold the polls open for them, and people who are there with bells on at 6:30 in the morning on Election Day. It’s the latter group who is owed a predictable process.
It’s rather likely that the GOP will at least control the House, which means that they can spend their time just like the Democrats did in 2019-20: investigating a sitting president. (Because they’re scared of what the WaPo and New York Times will say, though, I doubt they have the stones to impeach Joe Biden despite the many instances of misfeasance and malfeasance we can document: the Afghanistan withdrawal, lack of security on the southern border, declaring student loan forgiveness, and so on.) But they can also promote an agenda that addresses the economic and foreign policy issues we have. In a way, we are back to the TEA Party days and I’m sure that soon we’ll be told, “there’s only so much we can do, we control only half the legislative branch.” The other side sure made life miserable for Donald Trump, though, because they didn’t care and pushed on regardless.
Now let’s discuss Donald Trump.
Supposedly next week he’s planning to announce his 2024 run for President, which of course will bear on the Georgia runoff by further energizing the Democrats. It’s a replay of 2020.
You know, it could be that Donald Trump will be what I feared of him in 2016: the one who destroys the Republican Party once and for all.
Look at what happened in Maryland for an example of how he divided the party into two distinct camps who wouldn’t see eye-to-eye. Granted, there are a number of prominent people who now have their knives out for Trump based on what happened this week but you can’t argue he wasn’t a factor in turning off (and turning out) independent voters who rejected him in 2020. I think Donald Trump was as much of a factor in thwarting the red wave as the Dobbs decision if not moreso; after all, the red wave crashed over Florida and that state is under the jurisdiction of Dobbs just as much as we are. Surely the Sunshine State has as significant of a population of single women who want to have sex without consequences as anywhere else, but they were way outvoted by people with sanity who better understand the right to life and the benefits of conservative governance.
Perhaps had Trump not backed Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania, another contender who wasn’t a carpetbagger would have been able to overcome John Fetterman. More evidence: just look at the vote differentials between candidates Trump backed and those for whom he didn’t have input, like Herschel Walker vs. Brian Kemp in Georgia or J.D. Vance vs. Mike DeWine in Ohio. (And I say that knowing full well that DeWine is way over in the RINO camp.) Same goes for the surprising Glenn Youngkin victory in Virginia last year, as he kept the focus local and Trump wasn’t parachuted in to help.
I’m writing as someone who came around to the Trump camp in 2020, but right now, in races that aren’t slam dunks for GOP candidates in deep red states, Donald Trump seems to have about the same track record as Barack Obama: the epitome of electoral poison.
I know there are many people who I consider friends who won’t agree with me because they remember Donald Trump as a barroom brawler who took it to the Swamp and got some great results: tax cuts, energy independence, trade pacts and peace treaties, regulation cuts, a more secure border, and a roaring economy that finally recovered from the doldrums of the Obama-Biden years. But to continue that record he has to get back into office: the problem will be that by then he’ll be 78 years old - we see how advanced age is working out for us now - and a lame duck from the moment he takes the oath of office. Maybe he will be the swashbuckling avenger those Qanon followers in the hinterlands dream about but it’s more realistic to think he will once again pick up a cadre of grifters and yes-men only out to enrich themselves, particularly knowing Trump’s populist, big-government tendencies.
At this time four years ago, I was writing the final few chapters of Rise and Fall, and this was about the time I was working to solidify the argument that I had come to that the TEA Party had, indeed, made up the base of people who elected Donald Trump. In a political sense no one cared about those folks once the TEA Party had become just another bunch of Beltway insiders who made it their way to cash in; however, it’s also worth pointing out that the older, working-class folks who became the TEA Party backbone weren’t necessarily in it for smaller government like those who started it were - many in its libertarian wing departed when the TEA Party began a mission creep into social issues and these future Trump supporters were the folks who filled the vacuum. There were a large percentage of TEA Party adherents who said, “cut government but don’t you dare touch muh Medicare and Social Security!” Trump took reform off the table, saying his booming economy would save it, and that closed the deal for a lot of folks.
We saw a lot of the use of government power and funding to address a crisis in the early days of the pandemic, and while we rightfully blame Joe Biden and his policies for our inflation, there’s no way of excusing Donald Trump from criticism since some of the free-flowing government largesse came under his watch, too. Granted, difficult once-in-a-lifetime circumstances and all that, but he lit and set down the torch that Biden picked up.
While I’m sure Donald Trump has a vision to Make America Great Again, he should be counseled to continue working on it from the outside. (Like he would take the advice, but regardless…) It’s very disappointing to find that Trump has basically given his blessing to candidates and little else, choosing instead to save the money for his own run and leaving several endorsed candidates high and dry at a critical time.
2024 should be about restoring America from four years of a bad dream administration, not personal revenge for a perceived slight. The GOP could have a great field of candidates, but only if the oxygen isn’t sucked out of the room by one guy who the media annointed in 2016 because he was the Republican they thought Hillary or another Democrat could most easily beat. We can’t take a chance they’ll be correct two times out of three.