One big, messy disaster?

Are Trump and Congress trying to bite off more than they can chew?

To hear the White House tell it, the major legislation being placed before Congress this summer is the best thing since sliced bread - the laundry list of benefits includes the following:

• Ends the tax on tips

• Ends the tax on overtime

• Brings jobs back to the U.S.

• Streamlines federal bureaucracy

• Invests in American infrastructure

• Protects American innovation

• Lowers energy costs

• Empowers small businesses

• Permanently secures the border

• Increases child tax credit

• Slashes taxes on social security

It’s an ambitious agenda, and I recall there was some debate on how to proceed - Newt Gingrich was one of those who preferred this one-bill approach while House Freedom Caucus chair Andy Harris (my erstwhile Congressman) wanted an immigration-centric bill off the top, with tax cuts later.

Now I’m not going to lie to you: I haven’t read this multi-hundred page monstrosity and I don’t plan to, since it’s just so much sausage to me. But if you go by the White House descriptions, I think this bill could have been done in three or four buckets.

One is all the tax changes, which has several main aspects besides keeping the current rates in place. Ending the taxes on tips and overtime would be a boon to the working class, while increasing the child tax credit would help families and seniors would be all for a Social Security tax cut. Of course, this would have a deficit-busting CBO score because they’ve never met a tax cut they’ve liked, but those folks can piss off because they forget one simple factor: it’s OUR money, not theirs. Every time we get a tax cut, the revenue exceeds expectations - problem is, Congress wants to spend all that money and more to buy votes.

The biggest debate on the tax end of it, though, seems to be about SALT deductions (for state and local taxes, the SALT of the matter.) Republicans who come from high-tax, otherwise blue states want that deduction maximized so the rest of the country can subsidize the profligate spending of places like New York, California, Illinois, et. al. They already have a modest deduction, and they should be happy they got it.

The second bucket is the immigration changes, which arguably is the most popular provision for all but the most Chamber of Commerce-type, we demand cheap labor Republicans. But they can be brought into line, I’m sure, because 3/4 or more of the voters want border security and criminal illegals to be gone posthaste.

Next on the obvious bucket list would be a combination of infrastructure investment and lowering energy costs, which would likely result in bringing jobs back. After all, “drill, baby, drill” creates a lot of jobs from resources we have as opposed to China-dependent solar panels and wind turbines made overseas. Invest in the infrastructure to move people and goods, with the best streamlining being that of eliminating the red tape that prevents quick construction. For example, imagine if Keystone XL had been completed by now instead of killed by President Autopen.

The rest can be smaller, standalone bills that promote the agenda.

Here’s the problem with the “big, beautiful bill” approach. The American people are already skeptical of a government that has run by crisis and continuing resolution for most of this century - in fact, one of Donald Trump’s first major dilemmas was getting a continuing resolution through Congress to keep the government going until the end of the fiscal year.

So when we get a bill that’s hundreds and hundreds of pages long and emanates the stench of “we have to pass the bill to see what’s in it,” there are going to be a lot of objections, and not just from the TDS sector and Democrat party (but I repeat myself.) I get that the people on the Trump side want to get something done soon enough to reach full effect by the 2026 midterms, but I think that border security, tax cuts, and prudent adherence to the DOGE cutting wish list would have achieved that by themselves. Like a spool, Congress could keep running out smaller bills on popular issues through the campaign, which would prevent Democrats from truthfully talking about a “do-nothing” Congress. (It wouldn’t stop them from lying like a rug, but that seems to be in their DNA.)

Unfortunately, the Trump approach has achieved the worst of both worlds. We’re going to spend most of the summer arguing about this provision or that as they ping-pong negotiations between the Senate and House; meanwhile, the war of words between Trump allies and detractors among the GOP will continue apace and the world won’t stop to let us off. Ideally, we would have already rattled off a number of victories on the legislative front to go along with the win on border security we are enjoying.

As always, pray for the best and prepare for the worst.

In the meantime, though, you can Buy Me a Coffee, since I have a page there now.