Is correlation causation?
Something seems a little fishy here.
I am a Luddite in many ways, and one of them is how I use my phone. I would be cool if it didn’t have all the bloatware and just did the few functions I ask of it: talk, text, take pictures, and give me mobile internet access. It also gives me access to my Shorebirds tickets, which is useful.
But a few days back I got a text that asked me the following:
This is Ryan with Political Research 2022. Will you please participate in our poll for Delaware’s US House Representative? Please let us know who you support.
Reply (1) for Lee Murphy (R)
Reply (2) for Lisa Blunt Rochester (D)
Reply (3) for Undecided.
Thank you. Reply STOP to stop.
Well, I figured it was doing an internal poll for someone, so I responded “1.” (This despite the fact I haven’t really researched the other two candidates in the race yet, as they weren’t an option on the poll.)
Just a couple days later, in my mailbox and addressed to me was a bright, shiny mailing from Lisa Blunt Rochester about how she’s so “bipartisan.” (So bipartisan she voted with Joe Biden 100% of the time, according to fivethirtyeight.com. By comparison, my former Congressman Andy Harris was slightly bipartisan, voting with Biden 7.2% of the time. Blind squirrel.)
While I was a bit taken aback with the mailing, I should have expected it because, from what I could gather - and assuming the company my search engine led me to was the same one - Political Research 2022 is out to assist “progressive” candidates. And remember, I am not a registered Republican in Delaware so I don’t get their stuff. I’m sure all 200-odd of us in the Delaware version of the Constitution Party are lumped in with the unaffiliated in the eyes of national political organizations, although if they ever asked me on an issue-by-issue basis they would realize I am barely left of militia.
Just as background for my friends in other states, I have had the same voter registration since I moved to Delaware three years ago, and insofar as the duopoly goes it’s the exact same House race we had in 2020 (Lee Murphy vs. Lisa Blunt Rochester.) But I didn’t get a single mailing for any 2020 race - maybe that’s because I had no voting record, but GOP family members got mailings in the primary in the same situation. So I’m thinking the text was placed in LBR’s behalf and I was set to get a mailing once I answered. (The tell, though, would be what happened if I answered with #2 or #3.)
The other interesting text I received lately came from a group called Million Voices, a “non-partisan, not-for-profit” that had put together a voter guide for Delaware (and, as it turns out, a dozen or so other states.) As they say, “Welcome to Million Voices. There are 30 million Christians in the United States who don’t use their voice to change policy.” Now there are 29,999,999.
In looking at their voter guide, which I accessed thanks to their text, it straight up prefers Lee Murphy as he is on the more conservative side of most issues. It’s what one would expect given Million Voices is a Christian organization, run in the same vein as iVoterGuide, who I have worked with previously to evaluate and grade candidates. (This year I did mostly local races in a Midwestern state I have not previously lived in but had familiarity with.) It wouldn’t shock me if Million Voices doesn’t share phone lists with iVoterGuide, which has my phone number because I have worked with them. Because it’s more of a shoestring organization, though, I don’t suspect I will be getting a mailing from Lee Murphy on their behalf - he’s on his own.
I suppose at some point I may have to do endorsements, because I just like putting my two cents in, but there’s really not a whole lot to endorse around here this year. It means I can do it all in one post, but it won’t be the next post. I have some other things to discuss first, so I’ll just surprise at some point and spring it on you sometime. (Actually, that wouldn’t be a bad idea for a podcast. Maybe next cycle.)
Hard to believe we’re still a month out from this election.
Fresh hot take: LBR won her race by 17 points in 2020. Getting a mailer as an “independent” voter makes me wonder if her polling shows a closer race. And knowing they now won’t have mail-in voting to rely on could tighten it up even more. Murphy won the machine voting in 2020, but lost mail-ins by nearly 90,000 votes to provide the final margin.