How far will they get?
I saw a note regarding this on Delmarva Dealings but apparently the Great Salisbury Property Tax Revolt of 2007 is now underway. The first step is the referendum petition that needs a certain percentage of the city's registered voters to succeed. We know they're out because Bill Reddish slapped his John Hancock on one this morning on his radio program. Bob Caldwell was the guest who witnessed the signature.
So I'm going to go under the impression that several people will be out and about at this weekend's Salisbury Festival gathering signatures. If they need 20 percent of Salisbury's registered voters I believe that works out to about 2,000 to 2,500 signatures (plus a few hundred in case of duplication and those thrown out.) Honestly, I don't see that portion of the drive as a problem if they sell it correctly - this would be a massive tax increase and at first blush who wants those?
But don't underestimate the folks who would be aligned against such an effort. Obviously you have Mayor Tilghman, the remnants of the "Dream Team", and most likely the Daily Times who I'll bet will editorialize often against this referendum. They'll paint the leaders of the effort as anti-public safety because the increase is ostensibly going to raise the police salaries. And no small part of this smear will occur because it's the local blogs who are leading this effort (moreso the other ones of the "Big Four", since I know nothing of local affairs according to some.)
Also I wonder about the general mood of the populace after four election days in the last 10 months, and a Presidential primary upcoming next February that candidates are already jockeying for position in. Will they be ready for yet another highly charged campaign for and against this referendum, or uncaring because they're burnt out on politics?
Moreover, how will the Chamber of Commerce types and SAPOA play into this issue? Knowing that the two on City Council they love to hate in Debbie Campbell and Terry Cohen will be at least symbolically spearheading this effort, will they attempt to scare their businesspeople and their tenants into thwarting this charter referendum at every turn? It's obvious that the forces behind this tax repeal effort better go through their petition and other efforts with a fine-tooth comb because I'm sure the city's side will be looking for any mistake in these efforts in order to stop them.
The best pieces of advice I can give those who wish to put an end to the charter amendment and stop this 11 cent property tax increase would be to plan for all of the contingencies I've pointed out (and more, as I'd be looking for personal attacks and hit pieces on the leaders of this effort); and, more importantly, provide a plausible alternative to the tax increase. Tell the voters that here is the way to fund the additional police salaries and fire department needs without an 11 cent property tax increase, most likely by cutting the budget in other places where needed, and present your plans. How about some grants, Louise?
In my lifetime, more often than not I've seen these drives for a recall (or, in this case a referendum - essentially the same thing) fail because it's truly tough to convince voters to go against the grain. The people who read monoblogue and the other local blogs are the exception rather than the rule - we're the 5% or so that are the community rabblerousers, while the other 95% worry more about how to get through their life and have generally learned that "you can't fight City Hall, so why bother?" So be prepared for a LOT of frustration as this effort continues.