Counting chickens?

As Yogi Berra most famously said, this is a case of deja vu all over again:

There is great news in my race to take the First Congresssional seat back from the tax-and-spend party of Pelosi.

Likely voters in the First District were polled the week before Thanksgiving.  Like all Americans, they were concerned about the economy and what the Democrats in Washington were doing.

If the election were held today, I would beat Frank Kratovil 52-39%.  Click on this link to read the original poll memo from the Tarrance Group, one of the leading national polling firms that also does the well-known "Battleground Poll".

This is exciting.  With just 11 months to go until Election Day, we all have a lot of work to do if we want to take the country back from the crowd in Washington.

You can visit my new campaign web site at www.andyharris.com  Please let me know what you think.  You can also sign up at the website to volunteer for the campaign. Or you can contribute to the campaign at www.DrHarrisForCongress.com.

I'm looking forward to seeing you on the campaign trail throughout the First District!

Sincerely,

Andy Harris Andy Harris for Congress

Most of you know I was a Harris supporter last time, and I take regular delight in telling folks who assured me Frank Kratovil would be a moderate (as opposed to having the liberal voting record I predicted) that "I told you so!" Even his final "no" vote on Pelosicare that supporters point to as evidence of an independent streak is somewhat suspect because he didn't vote to recommit in the previous vote - a majority vote to recommit with instructions would have effectively killed the House bill.

However, Andy Harris having a 13 point lead at this early juncture means little - that and $5 will get you a latte at Starbucks. Admittedly it's positive news for his campaign.

Two other factors in Andy's favor will be not having to defeat an incumbent in the primary (so there will be a more-or-less united Republican Party this time around) and having an opponent with a voting record perhaps even farther left than his moderate GOP predecessor.

(In truth, Wayne Gilchrest would likely have voted the same way on cap-and-tax and Pelosicare as Frank Kratovil did. But Gilchrest would have likely been more of a fiscal conservative. To me, had 2008 been Gilchrest vs. Kratovil Frank would have likely found success running just a little to the right of Gilchrest. Instead, he picked up the Gilchrest mantle thanks to Wayne's endorsement and could afford to run a little bit farther left, like calling for "universal health care.")

Obviously Andy Harris runs a risk in revealing these polls too early, and I wonder if this was really meant for public consumption when the results were revealed a week or so ago. I suppose knowing Andy polls well against Frank Kratovil does work well for fundraising, and Harris is going to be at a disadvantage there because the special interests and labor unions are going to pour millions into keeping Frank employed across the bridge. (Hey, that's what they did last time to get him there.)

Harris will have one last hurdle to navigate though. With his name on the Congressional ballot this year it's certain he won't be running to retain his seat in the Maryland Senate - but he'll still have to vote there next year. Last year I detected a slight modification of his stridently conservative record when I went through voting records for the monoblogue Accountability Project, perhaps with an eye on this rematch.

But I caution Senator Harris that it's not going to matter if he bends over backwards and moderates to appease certain voting interests. Any such effort is going to be ignored by the Kratovil team anyway as they troll through 11 previous years of Maryland Senate votes to pick out those which may play poorly to voters. Not many voters appreciate principle, and being on the short end of a 46-1 vote too many times became the subject of Kratovil team's derision in one particular commercial. (It doesn't matter to average voters that he was right to be in a small minority or even the lone voice of dissent in several cases because they'll never get the full context of the bill in question from a 30 second ad. Truthfully it's a miracle that the Democrats cite the particular vote and that's only because they're legally bound to.)

The trick for Harris this time around, though, will be on Election Day and the task at hand then will be to outperform his 2008 numbers on the Eastern Shore. He can do just as well in his stronghold west of Chesapeake Bay but in my opinion he needs to carry the four Lower Shore counties to win. Just flipping the numbers in Wicomico County (or any other Eastern Shore county save Caroline and Cecil) would have been enough for Harris in 2008. And given the fact that at least one third-party candidate will be on the ballot complicates Andy's battle a little bit more.

All we need to do is remember Harris had a double-digit lead in polling as late as last July to see that the work is far from over. Frank Kratovil and his big-money backers didn't get where they are by being stupid so there's no doubt they'll be slinging the mud as quickly as they can at Harris, if only to try and bury the questionable voting record Frank has accrued.

It should be an interesting 11 months.