A Delaware election preview
Since the filing deadline is by us (well, sort of) we can see how the major races will develop.
Last Tuesday was ostensibly the filing deadline for Delaware Republicans and Democrats to declare their intentions for running for office, so I now know that the most high-profile race (for U.S. Senator) won’t be on the ballot for primary day. But a lot of other contests will.
Because Republicans and Democrats have until a week before the primary to “fill in” their ballot vacancies, it’s difficult to say exactly how things will play out in November legislatively. All we know is that the Democrats have an 8-3 advantage in the State Senate seats that aren’t up in 2024, but that margin could shrink some because two of those Democrats are running from cover for higher office, as I’ll get to in due course. That would mean special elections in the midst of session, and if things worked out just so, the possibility Republicans could sneak into a 10-9 majority for at least a few weeks.
So here’s the scoop on the major state and local races as they stand right now.
(Note: while I know the vast majority of my readers don’t live in Delaware, I also intend this as a template for others who want to hold their local elected officials accountable in covering their races.)
U.S. Senator
Delaware voters won’t be facing a U.S. Senate primary this year as the major parties only have one candidate apiece. We know LBR is going to try and parlay her race and gender into a new position as the lone Democrat running, but the Republicans are running Walmart executive Eric Hansen as their guy, while Dr. Mike Katz, a former Democrat state senator, is trying his luck with the Independent Party of Delaware, or IPoD. Barring a entrant from one of the other ballot-eligible minor parties, who can nominate a candidate and get him or her on the November ballot by mid-August, this is the field for November.
But because there’s no primary, I can wait until early October to do my deeper dive on this race.
U.S. House
So far the minor parties haven’t become involved, but there’s enough intrigue between the two primaries to keep us all entertained.
When I first looked at this race in February, it was shaping up as a three-person contest between State Treasurer Colleen Davis, State Senator Sarah* McBride, and Delaware State Housing Authority head Eugene Young. (There were also two other folks I called “just in case” guys.)
But a funny thing happened on the way to the filing deadline: Davis withdrew citing significant personal health issues on February 28, and Young announced he was suspending his campaign June 12. So it’s pretty much left the field to someone who is trying to be the first transgender member of Congress, hence the asterisk (*) for a person whose birth name was Tim.
Since neither of the “just in case” guys bothered to file, it leaves the Democrat opposition to just two guys: Earl Cooper and Elias Weir. Unfortunately, I couldn’t find much to confirm what their stances were, although I did find Weir ran for Congress before in 2016, finishing last in the Democrat primary LBR won that year. (He even finished behind Delaware’s favorite perennial candidate and plywood sign maker, R. Scott Walker.) So the Democrats have managed to clear their field for another “historic” radically statist representative.
On the GOP side, it’s a different triangle of candidates, including a blast from my past.
Back in 2008, when we both lived in Maryland, Dr. Joe Arminio ran for Congress. At the time, he probably would have compared best to Dr. Ron Paul in terms of political philosophy. (I covered a Wicomico County Republican Club meeting where he spoke.) I think he’s become a bit more of a Trumpian populist, but regardless he’s not a conventional Republican.
Apparently he didn’t like his chances of winning, though, because he withdrew his name from the ballot yesterday - one of two last-minute changes. So we are down to a two-person Congressional race among Republicans with the two below.
Next up is a familiar name to GOP voters: Donyale Hall was the GOP candidate for LG in 2020 as well as State Senate in 2018 and local Kent County offices later on. She was already in the race when I did my previous article.
On the other hand, John Whalen III wasn’t in the race - he filed right before the deadline. The Millsboro resident will have a steep learning curve as he takes on two veteran candidates, but his first Facebook issue message was on illegal immigration and the economy, so he has the right idea.
I’ll probably look at this race second in the next few weeks. Hopefully I’ll have more info on some of the lesser lights by then.
Governor
Just like the House race, when the dust settled we had three Republicans and three Democrats.
I relatively well covered the Democrat race back in March as the three competitors - Bethany Hall-Long, Matt Meyer, and Collin O’Mara - were already in the fray. Republican Jerry Price was also in the race, and, after the quick entrance and exit of state GOP Chair Julianne Murray, the race was picked up by two guys: House Minority Leader Mike Ramone, who gave up his seat to run, and businessman Bobby Williamson.
This will likely be the first race I cover since it’s a race where I already have positions for all of them. There might be a minor-party candidate, but I can add him or her later.
Lieutenant Governor
While I didn’t get to the post in my earlier look at the races, it turns out the three-person Democrat field didn’t change since then. So the September primary will feature quite a bit of political experience: State Rep. Sherry Dorsey Walker, State Senator Kyle Evans Gay (the other one running from cover) and party official Debbie Harrington are all seeking the job. Whoever emerges from that scrum will face another woman with a legislative background - former Rep. Ruth Briggs King, the lone Republican in the race who automatically advances to November.
Insurance Commissioner
If you’ve heard this before, it’s not a surprise: incumbent Insurance Commissioner Trinidad Navarro, a Democrat, is re-running his 2020 primary with Kayode Abegunde. Last-minute Republican filer Ralph Taylor is still a provisional candidate, so it may be decided by Democrats unless a minor-party hopeful jumps in to give all of us a choice.
Local races
Here in Sussex County, we have one countywide election, three County Council slugfests (two of which would, at this moment, be decided in the GOP primary), and a handful of legislative races that may have already been decided barring a late entry. These are the types of races where many campaigns may only have a social media page, which I’ll link to (but prefer full websites.)
Unless someone comes in as a late entry, there won’t be an election for Clerk of the Peace, as Republican Norman “Jay” Jones has held the office since winning election in 2016. That’s the only prospective countywide election this time around, and people must like how he handles marriage licenses.
In County Council District 1, longtime incumbent Mike Vincent (since 2008) has challenges from both Matt Lloyd and Christie Shirey, although the latter is still a provisional campaign. However, a social media search for her name reveals she may have been a Delaware TEA Party organizer, which makes her an intriguing candidate who needs to knock on my door (as I live in District 1.) Matt Lloyd has already done so, although I wasn’t home at the time - my spouse was.
Over in District 2, incumbent Cindy Green (since 2020) faces a GOP primary challenge from Steve McCarron. Like the 1st District, unless a Democrat or minor party candidate is added to the ballot, the Republican primary decides the seat. Prior to seeking the District 2 seat, Green was the county’s Register of Wills while McCarron served on the town commission in Bridgeville and as a school board member.
In District 3, one-term incumbent Republican Mark Schaeffer faces the winner of a Democrat primary between Jane Gruenebaum and Dana Paskins. Gruenebaum’s claim to fame is that she founded the Sussex Preservation Coalition, an anti-development group, while Paskins is an Air Force veteran who wants to bring “diversity, balance, and inclusion” to the county council. (Paskins also withdrew yesterday, leaving the Democrats without a primary.)
We also have a number of state legislative races from Sussex:
Senate District 6: I can wait until October or so to deal with this race, as Republican Kim Hoey Stevenson takes on Democrat Russ Huxtable, who just won the district in 2022 after a longtime GOP incumbent retired. Barring a minor-party entrant to stir the pot, that’s the race parts of eastern Sussex will get.
Senate District 18: Portions of far northern Sussex have a GOP primary between incumbent Senator Dave Wilson, who has represented the area for 16 years, first for a decade in the House and the last six years in the Senate, and challenger Robert “Bob” Reed, the one who lives in Sussex. (Wilson lives in Kent County.) No Democrat has jumped into the race, making this the only Senate primary in the state and deciding who gets all the marbles.
Senate District 21: No one has yet filled a blank ballot space against incumbent Senator Bryant Richardson, a Republican. (That’s my district here in the southwest corner of the county and state, and I’m not doing it either.)
(Senate Districts 19 and 20, which represent the bulk of central and southern Sussex, aren’t on the ballot until 2026.)
There are 10 House districts in Sussex County, but just five have elections slated. In House Districts 35 (Jesse Vanderwende), 37 (Valerie Jones Glitner), 38 (Ronald Gray), 39 (Daniel Short), and 40 (Tim Dukes) the Republican incumbents are currently unopposed for another term. (I happen to live in 40, see Bryant Richardson above.)
House District 4: At this point the November field is set between GOP incumbent Jeff Hilovsky, who won the newly Sussex-based district in 2022, and Democrat challenger Gregg Lindner.
House District 14: An intriguing election in the Rehoboth/Lewes area to succeed longtime House Speaker Pete Schwartzkopf has just one Republican seeking the seat in Mike Simpler. However, there are three Democrats in an interesting field: former State Auditor Kathy McGuiness, who has Schwartzkopf’s endorsement but notably doesn’t talk about her time as Auditor, onetime Capitol aide and director of Congressional relations for UNICEF Marty Rendon, and former Delaware Common Cause director Claire Snyder-Hall, who is using the LBR approach of stressing no woman has ever represented the district.
House District 20: A little farther north along the coast lies this district, where Republican Nikki Miller, a high school principal, awaits the winner of the Democrat primary between incumbent Stell Parker Selby, who won the open seat in 2022, and Brian Jenkins. Until 2022, this was a GOP seat.
House District 36: Until the very last minute, this was a battle to be decided in the GOP primary where three-term incumbent Bryan Shupe, who runs the DelawareLive news website, has a challenger in IT professional Patrick Smith. But Democrats in the Milford/Milton area have put up Rony Baltazar-Lopez as their candidate. It’s one of just two GOP House primaries in the state.
House District 41: Instead of having 62 like him, Democrats in the district are trying to connive voters into removing three-time Delaware Accountability Project Legislator of the Year Rich Collins, as Democrat Tom Brett wishes to pollute that district with inferior views. Collins holds the record on the DAP with a 96 term score and lifetime rating of 87 - by miles the best in the state - so we don’t want to lose that.
I’ll cover these races more in depth at the appropriate time, knowing that one or more of the unopposed races may get a Democrat or minor-party candidate in the coming weeks.
Shew. That’s a lot of elections. But why is my November ballot so empty?
Until next time, remember you can Buy Me a Coffee since I have a page there.